Pattaya

[Kawaiisoi6]

Originally Posted by Nonteerak2553

Ya, I hear this rumors too, but let's pray that they will end the curfew soon.

Curfew not being enforced strictly in Pattaya. I left for my room at 10 pm. Beer bars along 2nd road...many were open..so were the soapies. 7-11 closed but Family Marts still open. Guess they know something that I dont.

[Soul_Reaper]

Originally Posted by Kawaiisoi6

Curfew not being enforced strictly in Pattaya. I left for my room at 10 pm. Beer bars along 2nd road...many were open..so were the soapies. 7-11 closed but Family Marts still open. Guess they know something that I dont.

I have an upcoming trip from 31-05-2014 to 13-06-2014 arriving via Swampy.
Should I cancel and postpone?

[indianmagicoil]

Originally Posted by skyfree

Haha....if u go at 7pm, maybe not much puying left liao....

Yes I think u r right bro... fast hand fast leg
Curfew should be until this Sunday.

This coup could get uglier. Its a war of succession and a U$40 billion inheritance at stake. Prayuth is the 大伯公 he lured everyone to the talks but rounded them all in one fell swoop. If all goes to plan when he retires in September he will get a big fat reward. Read this analysis issued yesterday by the Siam Intelligence Unit - better than any water cooler gossip and see for your self whats going on the next few days.

What’s Happened

A coup by The Army Chief, General Prayuth Chan-ocha.
Political leaders from both side are ‘in control/custody’ by the army. The list includes Suthep Thaugsuban (PDRC leader), Abhisit Vejjajiva (Ex-PM and opposition leader), key ministers in Pheu Thai government, 5 key red shirt leaders.
Some red shirt leaders throughout the country are in custody.
Acting PM Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisan is missing. As we know currently, he is not in the army control.
2007 Constitution is now defunct. The Cabinet is gone.
The junta keep the senate and the justice courts.
All TV stations are under controlled. Normal programs are replaced by military graphic.

What We Don’t Know Yet

Whereabout of Niwatthamrong, also Yingluck Shinawatra.
It seems that Shinawatra family members fled the kingdom. No confirmation yet.
Nothing from Thaksin yet.

Analysis
We already warned the ‘bad scenario’ in our previous analysis and now it happens.

It seems that from the conservatives’ viewpoint, the stake is too high so they can not lose this war at all cost. That’s why this coup happens. The martial law on 20th May is a testbed for today’s coup. We think the coup has been planned long before and the martial law is just a ‘lead signal’ for the eventual coup.

The big picture of this coup is ‘conservative forces consolidate their power’. The red shirts movement is too dangerous for the ‘sake of the Kingdom’ and needs to be gotten rid of. The ‘hard liner’ generals now run the show and we should expect the bad outcome.

What to Expect
This list is just our quick analysis from today’s information. We are very pessimistic right now for the situation.

We should see the new PM soon (within the next 3-4 days). The senate will act for the full parliament and nominate a new PM.
Possible PM candidates are General Prawit Wongsuwan, ex-Army chief and Palakorn Suwanrath, a Privy Councilor. Both are closed to the palace.
The new junta government will run the country for 1-2 years. Possibly longer than previous Surayud Chulanont government (2006-2007).
New Constitution will be drafted, we might call it 2015 Constitution. It will be more draconian than 2007 Constitution.
PDRC, Democrat Party, and all anti-Pheu Thai leaders will be released in the next few days. Pheu Thai and red leaders will be in custody longer.
The short term (1-3 months) outcome will be peaceful but it’s temporary peace.
The longer term (3-6 months and more) looks bad. Red Shirts will go underground. We might see some unrests.
The situation after that depends on the structure of the new Constitution and the call for ‘true democratic’ general election.
If the Constitution is undemocratic and the election is postponed indefinitely, the country (especially the junta government) will face the insurgency in North and Northeastern which is the red shirts’ bases.
The worst possible scenario is a chronic civil war. Same as Thailand’s ongoing Deep South Insurgency.

[CPBoy]

Originally Posted by Soul_Reaper

I have an upcoming trip from 31-05-2014 to 13-06-2014 arriving via Swampy.
Should I cancel and postpone?

IMHO the curfew should be until this Sunday if all goes to Prayuth's plan:

1) Protest sites already cleared.
2) All political leaders have been "detained".
3) Prayuth made himself PM today.

The curfew hours will be from 12 midnight to 4am for Saturday (24/5) and Sunday (25/5) but to be confirmed again tomorrow.

Meanwhile Sugar Baby Agogo and Windmills at Walking Street are having a "CURFEW PARTY" today. The doors opened at 12 noon. Then at 9:30pm you have a choice to either 1) go back or 2) stay locked up inside the gogo with the girls until 5am!

I personally can vouch that Windmill girls are very sporting so whats happening inside? Mass orgy? Anyone inside Sugar Baby now can give a live FR? Will they have the same tomorrow afternoon? Stay tuned to find out!

[pakalolo]

Originally Posted by indianmagicoil

C

Whereabout of Niwatthamrong, also Yingluck Shinawatra.
It seems that Shinawatra family members fled the kingdom. No confirmation yet.
Nothing from Thaksin yet.

[/I]

Yingluck detain by coup leader in undisclosed location, this could be the general mistake as the people in Chiang Mai will not sit still if she is not release.

This mean more trouble to come in the North.

[skyfree]

Originally Posted by indianmagicoil

Yes I think u r right bro... fast hand fast leg
Curfew should be until this Sunday.

[/I]

I hope so.

If not, sekali the puying quote lower price for LT than ST.

[indianmagicoil]

Originally Posted by pakalolo

Yingluck detain by coup leader in undisclosed location, this could be the general mistake as the people in Chiang Mai will not sit still if she is not release.

This mean more trouble to come in the North.

This report released by SIU was on the day General Green Tea announced coup.
The acting PM knew something fishy that's why he never attend the army's 2 kopi session. Now some reports say YL detained in Army camp at Saraburi. Al Jezeera say she under house arrest (which house?). I personally feel the Red Army is over rated but let's see what's gonna happen.

Originally Posted by skyfree

I hope so.

If not, sekali the puying quote lower price for LT than ST.

Why is that a bad thing unless u prefer sleep alone?

[Kawaiisoi6]

Originally Posted by Soul_Reaper

I have an upcoming trip from 31-05-2014 to 13-06-2014 arriving via Swampy.
Should I cancel and postpone?

Its all calm and quiet in Pattaya. The few soldiers we see here are mostly busy taking photos with tourists and locals alike. Tv is almost back to normal as most stations has resumed transmission.
Most businesses have adjusted their opening hours. Basically all open earlier and close earlier.thats all.
Most importantly..there is no violence here the curfew is not strictly enforced here even though WS and most bar areas conform to the orders and close by 10 pm.
Basically...if you are an all nighter type of guy you will not have the late nite entertainment venues like Hollywood..Discos..I bar..so wont be so fun I guess.
If you have no problem going to bed earlier than its really not much difference.

Its only Bangkok thats best avoided at this present time.

So basically do not change plans becos there are more girls now than any punter can manage....enuff said !!

[icehaya69]

damn! trip postpone till mid of June

[TonyCheong]

Originally Posted by etct88

I got home to SG on Monday night, Army delared Martial Law on Tuesday.

KNN uncle you got insider news but never share with bros here!
Buay steady leh!

Originally Posted by pakalolo

Yingluck detain by coup leader in undisclosed location, this could be the general mistake as the people in Chiang Mai will not sit still if she is not release.

This mean more trouble to come in the North.

This one will need Khun Nonteerak2553 to report if there're any Northern "rebellions".
He very the free and good mood these days.

[etct88]

Originally Posted by TonyCheong

KNN uncle you got insider news but never share with bros here!
Buay steady leh!

Mai aun nee kong lei....cipek... I also don't know, if I know, I will surely do a Poi Pet run and extend stay by at least 2 weeks to enjoy the excitement.... now got to look for parachute...knn you know me better....

[etct88]

Hope the curfew ease off soon (which is very very likely)

come June 7th and 8th there will be a Street Party on Soi 6. This have been planned a year ago. for the 2 days from 2pm to 2am..... Quite sure it will happen.... if not hope they postponed it to july and yahooooo for me (I'll be there)

Maybe I parachute in for a night or 2......

[TonyCheong]

Originally Posted by etct88

Mai aun nee kong lei....cipek... I also don't know, if I know, I will surely do a Poi Pet run and extend stay by at least 2 weeks to enjoy the excitement.... now got to look for parachute...knn you know me better....

Yah hor I forgot you like to parachute in disaster zones!

Dongguan Crackdown for 3 months already and now my backup Thailand has a Coup.
Entertainment industry in Asia is very "unstable" this year!

[Ninja_Assassin]

Originally Posted by pakalolo

Yingluck detain by coup leader in undisclosed location, this could be the general mistake as the people in Chiang Mai will not sit still if she is not release.

This mean more trouble to come in the North.

But the people from the north still need leaders to organise them. Many of their leaders have been detained along with Yingluck too. Out of the 125 under detention..... about 100 of them are from the red camp.

[TonyCheong]

Originally Posted by Ninja_Assassin

But the people from the north still need leaders to organise them. Many of their leaders have been detained along with Yingluck too. Out of the 125 under detention..... about 100 of them are from the red camp.

Jai yen yen, don't worry!

Northern resident Khun Nonteerak2553 very free and good mood these days.
He can volunteer!